Thursday, October 30, 2008

D minus 5: Jobs or lack of them

I think one of the biggest things that is going to wallop us from around the corner is unemployment. I think as the pangs of this economic crises continue the one most painful and observable realities will be the many people out of work. As the banks freeze their lending, and the stock market continues to dive, less cash will be available for companies to buy inventory, pay rent, or make payroll. It's not that these companies are at fault per se, it's just that the cash has seized up as a result of some very poor behavior that the government has turned a blind eye to in the last decade. If companies can't make payroll then they will have to lay off workers, many of them.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Unemployment rates were higher in September than a year earlier in 349 of the 369 metropolitan areas, lower in 14 areas, and unchanged in 6 areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Ten areas recorded jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, while nine areas registered rates below 3.0 percent. The national unemployment rate in September was 6.0 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 4.5 percent a year earlier. --- read more

Here is the unemployment rate chart from the BLS from 2000 to 2008. It shows a typical ebb and flow that is normal for America. But I suspect that tail at the right is going to shoot through the ceiling in the next 4 months. 4th Quarter earnings will be bleak this year.

The question is: Who is ready to face this crisis? We learned from yesterday's post that McCain is kind of a "wing it until something sticks kind of fighter pilot problem solver", barrel-rolling through one risky tactical decisions after another, and lacking any foresight for what's left to clean up after the day's mission is done. We need long term, well thought-out, large scale organization from the ground up to bolster the economy and employment. We need leadership to re-tool industry, change trade agreements, and create public works campaigns that will be fair, economically sound and an investment in America's working future. Are we going to wait for the money to trickle down from the CEOs' golden parachutes? No! Not anymore! We don't have time to watch that experiment fail yet again. I think over protectionism and isolationist ideas are dangerous for our country, but I think we need America to work for all the people not just the ones at the top, or overseas. We're going to need some leadership that will get the American labor force back to work, building a better economy for the future, with the American worker as the priority. Someone who thinks strategically from the ground up, not zooming over our heads in hopes a random solution drops from a hardpoint under his wing.
It's going to be scary the next couple years. Who do you think will help YOU, your Family and your Neighbor?

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